More Than 60% of States Have NOT Regained Jobs Lost During the Pandemic

By SBE Council at 22 August, 2022, 10:48 am

by Raymond J. Keating –

Just how “good” is the jobs market? It’s noted in the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report on “State Employment and Unemployment” that in July 2022 compared to the previous month, “Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 20 states, decreased in 2 states, and was essentially unchanged in 28 states and the District of Columbia…”

Meanwhile, over the past year, it was reported that “nonfarm payroll employment increased in 43 states and the District and was essentially unchanged in 7 states.”

The fact that employment growth in July vs. June was nonexistent in 28 states, with two states losing jobs, doesn’t speak all that well of the direction of employment.

But as SBE Council has noted before, a key point when we look at employment by state is where the latest numbers stands versus pre-pandemic levels.

As noted in the following table, 62 percent of U.S. states in July 2022 had not yet returned to the level where nonfarm payroll employment stood in pre-pandemic February 2020.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Calculation by author.

So, the employment picture in the U.S. varies far more widely than is assumed by many given national numbers, including the fact that the unemployment rate is an incomplete measure in that it tells us little or nothing about labor force and employment levels.

These state numbers not only raise questions about how broad the employment recovery from the pandemic has been, but they also serve as a warning about what might lie ahead regarding jobs if a recession and/or inflation persist.

Raymond J. Keating is chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council. His latest book is The Weekly Economist: 52 Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist.