Mixed Employment Picture: Pick Your Jobs Report for April?

By SBE Council at 8 May, 2026, 1:21 pm

by Raymond J. Keating –

The April jobs report seems to be getting billed as strong because a headline number beat market expectations. But beating what the market thinks is coming doesn’t necessarily equate to strength.

The April 2026 employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics turned out to be one of those peculiar (although not exactly rare) situations where the establishment and household surveys in the report diverge. The establishment survey points to overall nonfarm payroll employment gains of 115,000 in April, while the household survey indicated jobs losses of 226,000 for the month.

Given the low expectations and that private payrolls increased by 123,000, you could call the establishment survey the good news story.

It should be noted that while more volatile month-to-month, the household survey also is more comprehensive and better captures small business and startup activity. For example, nonfarm payroll employment from the establishment survey registered 158.7 million in April, while employment from the household survey was 162.6 million.

The bad news story is offered by the household survey. In addition to employment declining by 226,000, the labor force shrank by 92,000.

And over the past year, the declines are striking. The labor force from April 2025 to April 2026 declined by more than 1 million, and employment by 1.3 million. Those numbers are troubling, but they also reflect an aging population, lost immigration, and population adjustments. For good measure, the establishment survey pointed to growth of 1.2 million over the same period.

Given the data issues, when we look at related measures that are largely unaffected by such caveats, if you will, the negative trends are still there. The labor force participation rate declined from 62.6 percent in April of last year to 61.8 percent in April 2026. Likewise, the employment-population ratio declined from 60.0 percent in April 2025 to 59.1 percent in April 2026.

As noted in the following chart, the current move down in the labor force participation rate began in late 2023, but really extends back to 2000.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED

And the same trend holds for the employment-population ratio. (See below).

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED

In the end, the positive take on the labor market is that it’s stable. The negative, and I would argue more accurate, assessment is that the labor market has stagnated for a wide array of reasons – and that’s not a positive for entrepreneurship and the economy.

Raymond J. Keating is chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council. He is the author of “The Weekly Economist” book series, and 10 Points from Walt Disney on Entrepreneurship.