WELTMAN: Your Holiday Shopping Season Playbook: What to Do Now

By SBE Council at 9 September, 2026, 9:04 am

By Barbara Weltman –

The National Retail Federation (NRF) says the holiday shopping season runs from November 1 through December 31. Last year, an NRF survey found that 42% of consumers planned to begin holiday shopping before November. Will this year be different? And what will consumers on average spend? Last year, sales were strong, surpassing the prior year by 4.1%. Things for this year are uncertain. Still, it’s not too early, or too late, to prepare for this holiday shopping season.

Some ideas to help you prepare now:

Read the Tea Leaves

Things in the economy are wonky, making it very difficult to predict how consumers will act during the holiday season. Nonetheless, Practical Ecommerce lists 5 predictions that may influence your planning strategies:

1.) Online holiday sales will grow by 8%. Just remember that during 4-day Amazon Prime Day event in June, sales increased by 9.3%.

2.) AI is helping sales. “Shoppers referred from generative AI tools will convert at least 25% better than those arriving from non-AI channels during the 2026 peak shopping season.”

3.) Layaways are helping sales. Buy-now-pay-later services are expected to account for $22 billion in online purchases between November 1 and December 31. This type of sale is becoming increasingly common.

4.) International sales are growing. Cross-border sales are expected to account for 20% of sales between Black Friday and Cyber Monday. China merchants (e.g., Temu; Shein) dominate these international sales. Is this your competition?

5.) Amazon sellers won’t be as strong as last year. So, small businesses should note that “Marketplace sellers have recently lost a little ground to Amazon’s own retail operation.”

Interestingly, Practical Ecommerce predictions last year were fairly accurate. It had predicted small business growth but there wasn’t enough data to know if it was right or wrong. “I predicted smaller U.S. online merchants would grow holiday revenue approximately 10% in 2025 to roughly $15.5 billion. I could not find a post-holiday dataset isolating that group.”

Actions to Take

Once you make your projections, then take steps to maximize sales:

● Create a holiday season calendar. This will enable you to schedule your actions. When will you hold special events, run sales, or begin discounts? Know your target audience and the products you sell so you can be savvy about sales. For example, if you’re targeting boomers, then October is a good time to start; this generation does not focus on Cyber week. In contrast, GenZs and Millennials favor Cyber week.

● Order your merchandise. As with inventory planning in general, you want to use the Goldilocks philosophy of not too much, not too little, just right. To do this, you need to forecast what will sell…and how much.

● Plan your hiring for the holiday season. It’s always challenging for retailers to hire sales help for the holiday shopping season. Like planning for inventory, you want to have enough workers to serve your customers well, but you don’t want to hire more than you need. By projecting your sales—and when they are likely to occur—you can better estimate the number of seasonal workers you’ll want to engage. Also consider your hiring in previous years and how it worked out for your business.

● Set your marketing strategies. Check your budget for marketing during this season. Recognize that social media, such as Instagram and TikTok, provide gift inspiration.

● Fix your return policies. Depending on what you sell, you may want a liberal return policy or one that is very restrictive. Be sure to comply with state/local law about posting your return policies, whether online or in a physical store.

Final Thought

NRF’s holiday predictions will likely be posted in mid-October. Be sure to look for them so you can fine-tune your plan as the holiday shopping season begins. Or check back here because I’ll post the predictions.

More about the holiday shopping season can be found in this list of blogs.

Barbara Weltman is a member of SBE Council’s advisory board, and has been a leading consultant for small businesses of every kind for over twenty years. She is the founder of Big Ideas for Small Business® and has written numerous books on small business operations, including J.K. Lasser’s Small Business Taxes, Smooth Failing, and Home Business Magazine’s Home-Based Business Guide. Follow Barbara on Twitter @BigIdeas4SB.