Business Trends

by Raymond J. Keating- On June 30, the Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index increased in June, although its remains well below pre-pandemic levels. The Index increased from 85.9 in May to 98.1 in June. That’s a notable move, but consider that the pre-pandemic level in February was 132.6. The Conference Board reported, […]

by Raymond J. Keating- Looking at the latest personal income report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, one has to look at what’s happening, or not happening, in the real economy, versus what’s been artificially and temporarily juiced up by government aid in response to the pandemic and government shut downs. The top line […]

by Raymond J. Keating- On the morning of June 25, entrepreneurs, business owners, managers, investors, policymakers and economists received three reports on the state of the economy. More information, of course, is welcome to hopefully gain greater clarity. At the same time, though, uncertainty regarding the coronavirus is working against clarity and in favor of […]

by Raymond J. Keating- The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis just released state personal income data for the first quarter. The data provides a peek at differences among the states as the pandemic was hitting the U.S. For good measure, the numbers can be teased a bit so as to get a look at income […]

by Raymond J. Keating- The economic devastation over the past three-plus months has been widespread, and no state has been spared. However, some states at least have fared less poorly than others. The U.S. Department of Labor’s report on May employment by state offers some points worth highlighting along these lines. First, the following table […]

by Raymond J. Keating- The U.S. Department of Labor reported on June 18 that seasonally-adjusted initial jobless claims registered 1.5 million for the week ending June 13. That’s down slightly from a week earlier, but well below the far higher levels registered over the previous three months. Of course, the most recent data remain far […]

by Raymond J. Keating- The latest report on industrial production from the Federal Reserve indicates that the bleeding at least stopped in May in terms of manufacturing production. Total industrial production actually grew in May by 1.4 percent after plunging by 12.5 percent in April and by 4.6 percent in March, and not seeing a […]

by Raymond J. Keating- On June 5, the Federal Reserve reported consumer credit numbers for April that lined up with the collapse in jobs and consumer spending in March and April. The Fed reported that consumer credit overall declined by a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 19.6 percent in April. That came after a 3.3 […]

by Raymond J. Keating- Could the economy have hit bottom in April, with the process of climbing out of a deep, dark hole having begun in May? Well, it’s too early to say anything for sure, but the May employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics provides some real hope. ● First, the […]

by Raymond J. Keating- It’s not surprising that during the pandemic crisis the latest trade data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis was grim. Yet the plunge in both U.S. exports and imports is still breathtaking. U.S. exports of goods and services declined by 20.5 percent in April, and that came after a drop […]