Business Trends

by Raymond J. Keating –  Based on the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the story on personal income, as well as personal consumption expenditures (PCE), is a mixed tale. Certain key aspects in the report are pointed in a positive direction, others in a negative direction, and we are still left […]

by RAYMOND J. KEATING – According to the latest GDP (gross domestic product) report, the U.S. economy grew at a real annualized rate of 6.5 percent in the second quarter of 2021. After four straight quarters of growth, U.S. real economic output recovered to where it was before the pandemic hit. That’s a noteworthy accomplishment […]

by RAYMOND J. KEATING – After suffering a decline in April, durable goods new orders grew for the second consecutive month in June, according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau. Since the major declines suffered in March and April of 2020, durable goods orders have now increased in 13 of the last […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The residential housing business overwhelmingly is about small business. For example, based on the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, 97.4 percent of employer firms in the residential construction sector of our economy have fewer than 20 employees, and 99.7 percent fewer than 100. Therefore, the hot housing sector […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The U.S. Census Bureau reported that retail sales bounced back in June after a decline in May. June retail and food services sales increased by 0.6 percent. And compared to a year earlier, retail sales were up a robust 18.0 percent. And versus pre-pandemic February 2020, June 2021 sales were […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The Federal Reserve’s latest take on industrial production – i.e., the actual output of the manufacturing, mining and utility sectors of our economy – indicated growth of 0.4 percent in June. The data show growth in three of the last four months, after a weather-related decline in February. The initial […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The Federal Reserve publishes the “Beige Book” eight times a year, and it’s a snapshot on the economy based on interviews with business contacts, economists, and assorted experts, along with reports from Fed bank and branch reports. The latest “Beige Book” pointed to a strengthening economy experiencing “moderate to robust […]

  by Raymond J. Keating – Inflation was running hot heading into June, and according to the latest Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, it got even hotter in June. Indeed, the 0.9 percent increase in the CPI in June was red hot. Over the past year, CPI inflation ran […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The latest consumer credit report from the Federal Reserve may be pointing to a move up in confidence among consumers in May. Consumer sentiment surveys are fine, as far as they go. But actions often can diverge from what’s expressed in surveys. Words, of course, have to be backed up […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The latest “Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report” from the U.S. Department of Labor offers a picture of how far the labor market has recovered from the initial pandemic shock, and how far we still have to go to simply get back to where we were before. For the week ending […]