Business Trends

by Raymond J. Keating – Inflation took a significant bite out of personal income in August, according to data in the latest personal income report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. While personal income grew by 0.4 percent in August, the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index also rose by 0.4 percent. So, in […]

by Raymond J. Keating – According to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau, new orders for manufactured durable goods returned to positive growth territory in August, after a massive decline in July. Previously, durable goods orders were up in each month from March to June. The July change was revised down to -5.6 […]

by Raymond J. Keating –  The Federal Reserve decided to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25 to 5.5 percent. Given the misguided focus of the Fed on trying to fight inflation by undermining the economy, things, quite frankly, could have been worse. Reading the FOMC’s full statement, however, leaves this economist feeling that […]

by Raymond J. Keating – Based on the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau, we saw something of a dichotomy in residential housing construction in August. Housing permits – which are estimates for future housing starts – grew by 6.9 percent in August vs. July (1,543,000 vs. 1,443,000), though this seasonally adjusted, annualized level […]

by Raymond J. Keating – Industrial production – i.e., the physical output, free from price changes, of the manufacturing, mining and utility sectors – grew in August by 0.4 percent, according to the latest report from the Federal Reserve. However, manufacturing production, which is the bulk of industrial production, barely edged forward at 0.1 percent. […]

The U.S. Census Bureau report that retail and food services sales increased by 0.6 percent in August would seem like good news for the state of the economy. But this gain is less than it appears. Inflation Factor First, it must be noted that this 0.6 percent increase in retail sales in August versus July […]

by Raymond J. Keating –  Inflation was back in August, reminding everyone that vigilance is vital. According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation jumped by 0.6 percent in August. Inflation had been tame in the three previous months, and in four of the last five. (See the […]

by Raymond J. Keating – What’s the latest take on the economy courtesy of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book? To say the least, it’s uninspiring. According to the assorted contacts that Fed staffers reach out to for each report, “economic growth was modest during July and August.” That’s underwhelming, perhaps until you realize, of course, […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The U.S. Census Bureau has reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods took a turn down in July after four months of growth. The July decline came in at 5.2 percent (seasonally adjusted), which followed on a 4.4 percent gain in June. A big reasons for the July decline […]

by Raymond J. Keating –  Manufacturing overwhelmingly is the domain of small businesses in the U.S. Consider that 93.1 percent of employer firms in manufacturing have fewer than 100 employees, according to the latest Census Bureau data (2020). Therefore, when looking at each month’s report on industrial production, it very much is a small business […]