Business Trends

by Raymond J. Keating – The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve – an assessment of the economy based on interviews with business contacts, economists, market experts, and others – pointed to economic growth slowing. Specifically, the Beige Book pointed to economic activity growing at a “modest to moderate” pace, but “that the pace […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The U.S. Census Bureau latest report on housing permits and starts points to the housing market cooling just a bit. That’s not surprising given how hot housing has been during the pandemic, and given the many and varied supply chain and labor challenges. Indeed, an assortment of questions points to […]

  by Raymond J. Keating – The Federal Reserve’s latest report on industrial production raises some serious questions about the economy. The Fed reported that industrial production – which is the actual output of the manufacturing, mining and utility sectors of our economy – declined by 1.3 percent in September. For good measure, output for […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The latest edition of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Small Business Pulse Survey shows rising supply-chain challenges for small businesses. Consider, for example, that the percent of small business owners in the latest survey (collected over October 4-10) facing delays/difficulties with domestic suppliers registered 45.7 percent. Three months earlier, that stood […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The U.S. Census Bureau reported that retail and food services sales grew by 0.7 percent in September. What does that and the rest of the data tell us? The Inflation Factor First, we have to point out that retail sales are not adjusted for inflation. So, when inflation is factored […]

by Raymond J. Keating- One ray of economic hope has persisted not long after the pandemic hit. That is, after suffering big declines when the pandemic first struck, the number of business applications (seasonally adjusted) didn’t just quickly bounce back to previous levels, but skyrocketed beyond where they had been. As noted in the latest […]

  by Raymond J. Keating – According to the latest Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation continues to be a problem, and questions continue to swirl about how long our current bout with inflation might last. Inflation is defined as an ongoing rise in the general price level, and […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The latest “Job Openings and Labor Turnover” report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics makes clear key aspects of the current labor market, including the tight labor conditions being confronted by employers, including small businesses. The data show that the workers who are actually choosing to work sit in […]

by Raymond J. Keating – Why are people satisfied with half of the story? This question pops into my head early every month with the new employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. As I have noted before, the monthly employment report actually is two reports, or at least based on two separate […]

by RAYMOND J. KEATING – The latest assessments of the services sector of the U.S. economy from purchasing managers point to strong growth, tempered by ongoing supply chain worries and challenges. The Institute for Supply Management Services PMI report highlighted strong and improving growth. Anthony Nieves, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business […]