Business Trends

by Raymond J. Keating – Since early last year, the debate over the causes of inflation has raged almost as hot as inflation itself. How much of this bout of inflation is transitory? How much is due to the Federal Reserve running breathtakingly loose money for more than 13 years now? How much is due […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The second estimate on first quarter 2022 GDP offered five changes worth highlighting as compared to the initial report. ● First, the decline in real GDP (seasonally adjusted annual rate) was revised down, from -1.4 percent to -1.5 percent. So, growth was just a tad worse than originally thought. ● […]

by Raymond J. Keating – After a decline in February, manufacturers’ durable goods orders have grown in both March and April, according to the latest report for the U.S. Census Bureau. However, inflation significantly undermines these reported gains. New orders for durable goods grew by 0.4 percent (seasonally adjusted) in April, after an increase of […]

by Raymond J. Keating –  According to the latest report on state employment from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, only 11 states saw statistically significant growth in nonfarm payroll employment growth in April 2022 compared to the previous month. That’s underwhelming and concerning. It also lines up with at least part of the mixed […]

by Raymond J. Keating –   After the economy was hit by the pandemic in March and April 2020, the residential housing sector has been one of the strongest areas of the economy. Housing recovered and moved above pre-pandemic levels rather quickly and growth generally continued. That has been good news for the small businesses […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The U.S. Census Bureau reported that retail and food services sales were up by 0.9 percent in April. For good measure, March sales growth was revised up from 0.7 percent to 1.4 percent. Of course, these nominal gains need to be put in perspective when inflation is running hot, as […]

Bad Policy Fuels the Likelihood   81% of small business owners expect a recession to occur this year, according to the latest CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Index Q2 2022 (May 5, 2022). by Raymond J. Keating –   With the change in real GDP turning negative in the first quarter of this year, a question inevitably keeps […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The latest Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed inflation slowing in April compared to the previous seven months. According to the CPI, inflation came in at 0.3 percent in April. That was down from 1.2 percent in March. However, over the past 12 months, inflation […]

by Raymond J. Keating – “The Employment Situation” report – or jobs report – released each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is one publication based on two different surveys. One survey is the establishment survey, which offers nonfarm employment numbers, and the second survey is the household survey, from which we get labor […]

by Raymond J. Keating – Eventually, economic reality even catches up to the Federal Reserve. And the current reality is that inflation is running red hot. The question remains, however, if at least one part of the Fed’s remedy will actually work. In the May 4 FOMC statement, the Fed declared that it is “highly […]