Business Trends

by Raymond J. Keating- Along with manufacturing, the U.S. services sector got off to a good start in 2021, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s services PMI report for January 2021. The index increased for the eighth consecutive month, and registered its highest level since February 2019. Notable were the facts that both new […]

  by Raymond J. Keating- The early takes on manufacturing in 2021 point to a very encouraging start to the year. The IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI registered a record high in January 2021 (this index goes back to May 2007), thanks to an acceleration in both output and new orders. That included the most […]

by Raymond J. Keating- The latest report on personal income from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis showed growth in personal income resuming in December, after two months of rather stark declines. However, small business income clearly continues to suffer. Personal Income Grows, Small Business Income Shrinks After declining by 0.7 percent in October and […]

by Raymond J. Keating- The Federal Open Market Committee statement released on January 27 noted, rightly, its assessment of the economy now and in the near term depends almost completely on the pandemic. However, when it comes to actual monetary policy, the Fed continues to be wildly disproportionate, and perhaps even detached from economic reality. […]

  by Raymond J. Keating- The latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis offers the initial estimate on real GDP (gross domestic product, or the value of the goods and services produced less the value of the goods and services used up in production) for the fourth quarter and all of 2020. The […]

by Raymond J. Keating- While labor unions continue to carry weight in the halls of political power, while also claiming a significant share of government workers as members, their long decline in the private sector has largely continued. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released its “Union Members – 2020” report. Of course, with […]

  by Raymond J. Keating- The devastation from COVID-19 has been brutal. According to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center (accessed on January 20), global deaths due to the pandemic have topped 2.06 million, and that includes more than 401,000 in the U.S. And if that weren’t bad enough, people have suffered from an economic […]

by Raymond J. Keating- The news on retail sales for December in the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau was worse than expected. Retail and food services sales for December declined by 0.7 percent compared to November, after a drop of 1.4 percent in November and a slight decline in October. Market expectations were […]

by Raymond J. Keating- The latest edition of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers a decidedly mixed take on the struggle for economic recovery. Modest Increase in Growth Based on information from interviews with “key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources,” the Beige Book started off at least somewhat encouraging by noting, “Most […]

by Raymond J. Keating- The latest “Job Openings and Labor Turnover” report was just released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and it points to little of substance changing in November regarding job openings, new hires and the quits rate. Meanwhile, the bigger picture provides a reminder that the U.S. economy remains in a […]