Fact of the Week

by Raymond J. Keating – The headline from the latest FOMC statement is that the Federal Reserve has decided to up federal funds rate from the targeted range of 0 percent to ¼ percent to the range of ¼ percent to ½ percent. The FOMC statement also included that the Fed “anticipates that ongoing increases […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The tightness of the labor market was made clear in the latest “Job Openings and Labor Turnover” report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Even with the data basically unchanged in January, both the level of job openings and quits remained quite high. The following chart shows total nonfarm […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The February employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics hit all the points on the checklist. It ranked as a robust month for job growth. First, the establishment survey estimated that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 678,000 in February. Second, the household survey, which tends to better capture […]

by Raymond J. Keating – While assorted challenges persist, the latest purchasing managers surveys point to manufacturing at least moving in the right direction in February. The IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI reported “a stronger improvement in operating conditions midway through the opening quarter of 2022.” Some of the good news was summed up this way: […]

by Raymond J. Keating – In its latest report on consumer credit outstanding, the Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit continued to expand through the end of 2021. Specfically: ● Revolving credit (mainly, credit cards) increased by 2.4 percent (at an annualized, seasonally adjusted rate) in December and by 10.9 percent in the fourth quarter. […]

by Raymond J. Keating – In the latest report on metropolitan area employment from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unevenness of the jobs recovery again became clear. While the differing depths of job losses need to be kept in mind, it is worth noting that from December 2020 to December 2021, 108 metropolitan […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The latest “Personal Income and Outlays” report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis offers no good news, as inflation turns everything negative. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is a measure of inflation that tends to get close attention from the Federal Reserve. In December 2021, PCE index […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The housing data for December 2021 presented by the U.S. Census Bureau provides more evidence for how changes in tax policy affect business decision-making. Building permits for privately-owned housing units (seasonally adjusted annual rate) increased by 9.1 percent in December versus November. However, that increase included a 111.9 percent increase […]

by Raymond J. Keating – There’s no getting around or spinning the Census Bureau’s retail and food services sales report for December 2021: It’s bad. Retail and food services sales for December declined by 1.9 percent compared to the previous month. Nearly all major sales categories were down, including nonstore (mainly e-commerce) retail, which was […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The minimum wage is one of very few issues where most economists are in agreement, specifically, that an increased minimum wage mandate by government leads to reduced job opportunities for certain groups of workers, and increased costs for labor-intensive businesses, with small businesses getting hit hardest. While the push persists […]