Fact of the Week

by Raymond J. Keating – The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve – an assessment of the economy based on interviews with business contacts, economists, market experts, and others – pointed to economic growth slowing. Specifically, the Beige Book pointed to economic activity growing at a “modest to moderate” pace, but “that the pace […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The U.S. Census Bureau reported that retail and food services sales grew by 0.7 percent in September. What does that and the rest of the data tell us? The Inflation Factor First, we have to point out that retail sales are not adjusted for inflation. So, when inflation is factored […]

by Raymond J. Keating – Each year, the first Friday in October is Manufacturing Day. That means we celebrate this vital sector today. It’s a day to mark the massive contributions that manufacturing businesses and their employees make to our economy. Manufacturing Day 2021 and Small Business The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) reports that, […]

Making things up, like redefining income to fit one’s political preferences, is not legitimate economic analysis. by Raymond J. Keating – Officials within the Biden administration – including various economists – are having a tough time dealing with economic facts. Indeed, they have gone so far as to mislead and serve up economic fictions. In […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The latest durable goods orders report from the U.S. Census Bureau served up some negative numbers for July. Hopefully, this is a one-month incident, and not a trend. First, the topline number showed durable goods new orders down by 0.1 percent in July. But that came after a 0.8 increase […]

by Raymond J. Keating – Inflation continued to run hot in July. According to the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation registered 0.5 percent in July. Over the past year, inflation came in at 5.4 percent. And if that’s not high enough, over the past six months, […]

by RAYMOND J. KEATING – After suffering a decline in April, durable goods new orders grew for the second consecutive month in June, according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau. Since the major declines suffered in March and April of 2020, durable goods orders have now increased in 13 of the last […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The U.S. Census Bureau reported that retail sales bounced back in June after a decline in May. June retail and food services sales increased by 0.6 percent. And compared to a year earlier, retail sales were up a robust 18.0 percent. And versus pre-pandemic February 2020, June 2021 sales were […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The Federal Reserve’s latest take on industrial production – i.e., the actual output of the manufacturing, mining and utility sectors of our economy – indicated growth of 0.4 percent in June. The data show growth in three of the last four months, after a weather-related decline in February. The initial […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The latest consumer credit report from the Federal Reserve may be pointing to a move up in confidence among consumers in May. Consumer sentiment surveys are fine, as far as they go. But actions often can diverge from what’s expressed in surveys. Words, of course, have to be backed up […]